[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 192351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N18W TO 02N33W TO 03N44W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS DOMINANT ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE E-SE OVER THE SE GULF. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION AND IS ANALYZED FROM 24N80W TO
23N84W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO 24N90W.
VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
23N98W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...NOTED ON SHIP...BUOY...AND
OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THIS EVENING...IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
EVENING WHICH IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE
ALOFT LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WATERS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING MOSTLY ALONG 66W N OF 32N THEN FROM 32N66W TO
26N70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N67W
TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED
WITH THIS FRONT AS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ALSO WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROUGHING N OF 20N BETWEEN
58W-72W. EAST OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM
32N54W TO 22N60W IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N47W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD TO 18N50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N34W TO 19N46W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED
WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N14W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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