[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W ALONG 2N18W 3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N23W
ALONG 4N32W 3N42W 3N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
MAINLY SE-S SURFACE RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE
BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE NW GULF COAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF FOG NW OF A LINE FROM
30N92W TO 27N97W. RADAR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY FARTHER
INLAND AND TO THE N...ESPECIALLY OVER LOUISIANA. PATCHES OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RETURN SURFACE FLOW
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. ALOFT...MAINLY
WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ERN SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW. STRONG WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
IN MOSTLY WLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
OVER S AMERICA. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN INCREASING IN SPEED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND
FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE FAR W ATLC AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR
33N66W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE W ALONG 47W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N42W CONTINUING ALONG 24N50W 20N65W AND DISSIPATING
TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS TO THE N OF 26N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS TO THE S
OF 26N. ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A
1032 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 38N21W. THE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 38N21W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE S ALONG 30N34W TO 14N24W WHICH IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN
16W-32W. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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