[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W...THROUGH
THE BORDER COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE TO 7N15W
AND 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 3N28W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W/42W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE
EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 100W. THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE 32N74W-TO-YUCATAN CHANNEL COLD FRONT
IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME MORE AND MORE. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 22N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 23N AT THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT...
THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF COAST AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 24N98W AT THE MEXICO COAST TO 26N90W AND 30N87W
AT THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ROUGHLY TO JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE
WIND FLOW HAS A GENERALLY EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 12N75W IN COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS...THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 6N77W ALONG THE COAST...AND
THEN WESTWARD CONTINUING EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
WHAT HAS BEEN TWO SEPARATE TROUGHS FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS
HAS BECOME ONE BIGGER AND BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
NOW. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N41W TO 28N50W AND 27N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG 32N33W 21N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 23W AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net