[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N20W TO 03N27W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE BASIN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E-SE
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE
NW GULF LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE REGION WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR ORLANDO TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 22N98W. THIS
RIDGE IS HOLDING A STATIONARY FRONT...ANALYZED ACROSS SE
TEXAS...IN PLACE INLAND ACROSS TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS NOTED ON SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...AS WINDS REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 90W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES BY EARLY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT AND STRONG N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN
THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ONLY SWATH OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AND E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADES OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N85W TO 20N75W. LASTLY...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
06N60W TO 12N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 56W-62W...INCLUDING BARBADOS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE W ATLC WEST OF
47W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
35N54W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N76W TO 28N79W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 67W-76W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 42W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N41W TO 28N41W TO 24N47W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 34W AND THE
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM 18N41W TO 24N40W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM EAST AND 120 NM W OF THE AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 46N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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