[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO
03N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N14W TO 03N27W TO 02N37W TO 03N44W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE THE GULF BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA W-SW TO THE BULK OF
THE TROUGH'S ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N104W. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AS A ROBUST 1029 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 27N89W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND
BECOME DIFFUSE AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF
WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BASIN. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W AND CONTINUES
SW ALONG 16N70W TO 14N77W TO 10N81W. THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT PASSES REVEAL THAT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER NE WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT E OF 74W...ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT W OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN EXITING AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 40N48W TO 29N56W
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N52W TO 27N58W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND COMMENCE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD TO 65W AND IS PROVIDING
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
41N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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