[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N16W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 1N26W TO 4N38W TO BRAZIL NEAR
EQ49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 21W-26W...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 29W-37W...AND FROM 43W-46W
BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N85W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT
OVER THE NE GULF. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STILL OVER THE E
GULF E OF 90W WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 20'S OVER N FLORIDA...AND IN
THE 50'S OVER S FLORIDA AND S TEXAS. IN CONTRAST AIR
TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE NW GULF
WITH SHOWERS...AND A 1026 MB HIGH TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 10 KT SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM E
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 14N90W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA
...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-85W. BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE
SHEAR LINE AND W OF 80W. 20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE
DISSIPATING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N59W TO E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W-60W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N16W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING
20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N-30N E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
22N33W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N50W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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