[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N20W TO BRAZIL
NEAR EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 34N93W. 15-25 KT
N-NE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF W OF 90W AND S OF 25N.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NW GULF.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STILL OVER THE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND
IN THE 50'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW
PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A
SURFACE HIGH TO BE OVER N FLORIDA AND A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA AT 22N78W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N...S OF HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER CUBA. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO
HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 30N66W TO
THE S BAHAMAS AT 21N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
24N60W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N-30N E OF
50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N24W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N56W TO HISPANIOLA WITH
CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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