[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NON-EXISTENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N16W 2N18W 3N21W 1N26W
1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 1S42W...CONTINUING
INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 43W
AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WIND FLOW REGIME EVENTUALLY COMBINES WITH SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL AND VENEZUELA NORTHWARD...NEAR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST IN THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA
COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE
AND/OR WILL BE RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 21N69W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 16N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISSIPATED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 33N
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 30N51W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N51W...ALONG 30N TO
30N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 27N42W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N63W 27N59W 25N58W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 33N12W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
29N18W TO 28N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT











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