[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1S-4N
BETWEEN 2W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 34W-40W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NE GULF. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15
KTS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN REACHING 20 KTS IN THE
NW GULF. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE AREA WITH SOME MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NRN GULF DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN.
HOWEVER...A SYSTEM BEHIND IT WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO
NICARAGUA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC.
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND
FLOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 68W
LEADING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE N ATLC ALONG 50W
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N60W TO 26N58W
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE E OF THE AXIS FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 51W-58W...AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A PATCH
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO FARTHER W FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
65W-70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 29W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N31W PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE WITH A COLD PORTION ALONG 32N21W TO
29N26W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N35W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
6 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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