[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO 1S35W AND BACK ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 43W ENDING NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 46W-51W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE ERN CONUS ALONG 90W. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT ELY WINDS ACROSS THE ERN GULF
BECOMING SE ACROSS THE WRN GULF WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.
SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KTS. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES...THE NRN GULF
IS OVERCAST WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG CAUSING LOW
VISIBILITIES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS
COASTLINE AT 1200 UTC...BUT HAS NOW DISSIPATED AS OF 1500 UTC.
EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25
KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 71W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT NEAR THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG
31N79W TO 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS AND
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N55W. FARTHER E...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NW ATLC TO AZORES
ISLANDS. A BROADER UPPER TROUGH IS FARTHER S ALONG 40W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE AZORES TO NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING TO 27N45W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND
TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY A
WEAK 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 9N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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