[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN TO 05S37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 10W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N88W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW ALONG 26N90W TO 22N93W THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR 22N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
TO COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 29N. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. IN WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NW TO W WINDS ARE NOTED IN SHIP...
BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES AND
CLEARS EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH 10 TO 15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
08N76W NW TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N91W. EAST OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT WHICH IS
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER
WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINING
W OF 58W WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TROUGH EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 29N62W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 30N72W THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A WARM
FRONT INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N78W. DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING...RESULTING IN A LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
EXIT THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N61W AND CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT W OF 45W. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 35W-55W THAT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N47W TO 29N44W.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM
EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 20N-28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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