[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W
TO BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF OF THE COAST NEAR
THE BORDER OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS NEAR 29N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICAN COAST
NEAR 21N97W.  A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO AN 1004 MB LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST.  FROM THAT LOW...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A THIRD LOW OF 1012 MB JUST EAST OF
THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 31N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE STATIONARY AND WARM FRONTS. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
SYSTEM SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING ALONG THE
STATIONARY AND WARM FRONTS BETWEEN CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  15-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 20 KT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW FLOW LINGERS OVER THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE.  EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A MERGER OF
THE LOWS TO MOVE NE TO GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.
EXPECT SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE N AND CENTRAL GULF N OF
THE FRONT.  NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-2 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT PREFRONTAL RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  NO GALES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW JUST EAST OF THE
FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N80W EASTWARD TO 31N63W...WITH THE
WESTERN THIRD BEING A WARM FRONT...THE MIDDLE A STATIONARY
FRONT...AND THE EASTERN THIRD A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 18N48W TO 12N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
180 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 25N.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 18N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
40W-55W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-45W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 62W. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA/FORMOSA




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