[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W
ALONG 1N30W 1N44W TO 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 16W-31W...AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN
IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
NRN GULF. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO WRN TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NRN GULF REMAINS FROM 29N86W TO
29N92W WHERE IT HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 30N95W 29N98W. A FORMING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW CENTER INTO NRN MEXICO TO 25N102W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ACROSS MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH A LINE OF VERY HEAVY ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE NE
TEXAS COAST. OVER WATER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N W OF
87W...AND N OF 23N W OF 94W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SRN GULF IS STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. STRONG WINDS
AND STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS UP
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN. DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN SURFACE
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN BECOMING 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A FEW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE
NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1018 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N64W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE W ATLC S OF 27N. TO THE N...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W CONTINUING TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AT 29N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE N ALONG 61W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 24N60W TO 19N64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 30N47W TO 17N50W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TO
THE E WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N
BETWEEN 41W-47W. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING SOME OF
THE CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ REGION. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 27W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N24W. THE
RIDGE IS PROVING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

WALTON





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