[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 7N15W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E
OF 9W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1012
MB LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N93W ALONG
28N94W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COVERING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF NW
OF A LINE FROM 24N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF 25N AS IT MOVES E THEN NE LIFTING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO THU. A SURFACE LOW WILL BRIEFLY FORM
ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL LIE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE MONA
PASSAGE WHERE A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED TO 14N81W. REMNANT
MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
A LINE FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W TO
16N75W. REMNANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER
OF THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N W OF 80W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF
THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND
COLOMBIA N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THOUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 68W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N76W. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W
CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N56W TO 21N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W
OF THE ENTIRE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 75W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 34N33W ALONG 22N31W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS W TO 16N43W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W
ALONG 30N32W TO 31N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN
25W-29W. A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N39W. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW WATERS ON TUE.
A FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC N OF 30N TUE AND WED. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC FRI AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM
31N75W TO 28N81W SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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