[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S44W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N
BETWEEN 9W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLC FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
SE OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. A
1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N93W AT 09/0900 UTC WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE
COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF 27N W OF 90W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DRIFT N THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SE. THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY COLD FRONT
OVER NE GULF SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF LATE SAT
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC
DRAWING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE N
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE ISLE
OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 82W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN. AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-18N E OF 68W TO
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SAT AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN
DISSIPATING ALONG 18N ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC E OF 60W WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE
DISCUSSION DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 09/0900 UTC
NEAR 32N72W TO 29N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 09/0900 UTC
FROM 31N70W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N72W TO THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W SW INTO THE TROPICS TO 7N58W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N32W TO 26N60W. UPPER LEVEL ENE FLOW IS ACROSS THE TROPICS N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND GENERATING AN
AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF
LINE FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W TO 11N23W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. THE W ATLC SURFACE LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY THEN COMBINED WILL SWEEP E REACHING FROM 32N70W TO
27N74W THEN BECOME STATIONARY TO W CUBA THEN STALLING THROUGH
EARLY FRI BECOMING STRETCHED ALONG 25N FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NW PORTION SAT REACHING
FROM 32N70W TO E CUBA LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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