[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N10W TO 2N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1S25W 2N44W
TO THE COAST PF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TO OVER THE BAHAMAS GIVING LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO A SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS SRN FLORIDA TO A WEAK STATIONARY
1013 MB LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND 22N85W. WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY ACTIVITY...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF...WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 27N E OF 87W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 30N83W ALONG 25N92W TO 26N93W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO INLAND MEXICO OVER THE
CITY OF PARAISO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 70-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
FARTHER NW TO THE COAST OF TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS ADVECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
OVERCAST MULTI LAYER CLOUDINESS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE SW...NW
...AND N CENTRAL BASIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY
INITIALLY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT LOOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...THEN IT WILL TRACK NE AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N85W EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR
19N87W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO DRY
SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NE ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF
30N W OF 35W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALONG WITH A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N25W TO 25N50W TO 25N72W...PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 65W. HOWEVER
...W OF 65W...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
TROUGHINESS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY W OF 78W.
FURTHERMORE...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT BARELY ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 28N74W. AS THESE TWO
FEATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE W ATLC...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING OFF
WEST AFRICA E OF 20W FROM 12N-25N. THIS PHENOMENON CAN HAPPEN
AT ANY TIME OF YEAR BUT IS USUALLY MORE OFTEN DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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