[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 4N10W WHERE THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2N18W 3N31W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 4W-15W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM 27N90W ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
05/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 27N87W 23N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W GENERATING SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS ALSO AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI THROUGH THE W ATLC
TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS AREA IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT
05/1500 UTC OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 27N90W TO 27N95W WHERE
IT PULLS UP STATIONARY AS IT CURVES S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST
S OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE COVERING THE W GULF N OF 26N W OF 92W
AND FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND
FROM FLORIDA BID BEND TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON MORNING WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL TUE AND DRIFT NW AGAIN WED AND THU. A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY AND WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH
TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SE GULF AND PORTIONS OF
CUBA THROUGH MON. TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY E THROUGH WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
21N86W TO JUST OF THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF A LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. THIS AREA IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS TO OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
BUT OTHERWISE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT E ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN TO 85W THROUGH WED
THEN DISSIPATE THU. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE TROPICS NEAR 10N57W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W TO 29N41W
WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO 23N52W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
23N65W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 29N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 7N-30N E OF 40W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
N OVER THE FAR E TROPICAL ATLC AND W AFRICA ENHANCING ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PORTION OF THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED BETWEEN THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 18N31W TO 26N32W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 20N-27N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 28W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1044 MB
HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF PORTUGAL. W ATLC HIGH WILL SHIFT E AND
WEAKEN THROUGH MON AS COLD FRONT SINKS S ACROSS NW ATLC TO ALONG
30N/31N. A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS N FLORIDA
AND SE U.S. COAST MON THEN SHIFT SE INTO NW PORTION EARLY TUE
REACHING FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED MORNING THEN
DISSIPATING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THU. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS S
FLORIDA TONIGHT BEING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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