[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021732 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 3N21W...
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 1N30W 2N404W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF. AT SURFACE...SE WINDS 5-10 KT ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. SURFACE TROUGHINESS IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NW MEXICO REGION INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS NRN TEXAS. IN
RESPONSE OF THE UPCOMING FEATURE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 15-20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTER WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
PERSISTING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 70W-80W S OF
16N...AS MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN EASTERLY WIND FIELD OF
15-25 KT ACROSS THE THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO GALE FORCE
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-77W...GENERATING SEAS 10-15 FEET IN
THIS REGION. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CLUSTERS OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW...SUPPRESSED BY A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DRY
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXCEPT FOR THE NW BASIN...WHERE
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO DROWNS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SO FAR...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WATERS WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
SE CONUS WILL INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 72W. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND ESE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
CONTINUES TO DRAW MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION
TO WEST AFRICA S OF 20N E OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA





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