[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N9W TO
4N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N12W TO 4N25W TO 2N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 17W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N83W. 15-20 KT
SE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S
OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER S
TEXAS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 20N74W TO 19N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF E CUBA. 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS W OF 70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA.
A GALE IS W OF FRONT N OF 30N TO 69W. A GALE IS ALSO E OF FRONT
N OF 30N TO 53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 26N47W TO 21N49W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N40W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N31W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N39W TO N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N66W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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