[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXITS SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD
TO 5N30W TO 4N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 22W-24W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 29W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1033 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 28N98N. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E GULF
...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LEAST OVER
THE NW GULF AND THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH 15 KT WINDS. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 24N W OF 90W. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE N GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER
S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO S
LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LOWER WIND
VELOCITIES OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 22N80W TO N
BELIZE AT 18N88W TO S MEXICO AT 17N94W. 20-25 KT N WINDS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA... PANAMA... COSTA RICA...
AND NICARAGUA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 73W-85W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N E OF 69W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS... FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO W CUBA AT
22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N65W. FURTHER
E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N36W TO 21N50W DISSIPATING TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240
NM E OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N SURINAME FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 47W-52W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING BOTH
FRONTS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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