[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N23W
4N33W 3N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
30W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N2W TO 2N12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N
ACROSS THE N GULF SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 21/0900
UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN NAPLES AND FORT MYERS
CONTINUING ALONG 24N84W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W
OVER THE FAR E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR
17N93W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF
THE FRONT IN THE GULF WATERS. STRONG N WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF S OF
23N W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
OVER S TEXAS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W GULF THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
W ATLC INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E CUBA TO NICARAGUA WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E
OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 58W-64W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF A
LINE FROM 14N82W 10N80W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM W JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS
MORNING. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF CARIBBEAN PASSES EASTWARD ACROSS W
ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY
AND EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN SUN
THEN DISSIPATE MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 21/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N76W CROSSING FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND VERO
BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 E OF THE FRONT TO OVER S FLORIDA. A UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W OVER THE W ATLC
TO BEYOND 32N68W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N
OF 22N W OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N68W. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 35W-60W
SUPPORTING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N39W CONTINUING ALONG 25N46W TO 21N57W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N41W TO 19N51W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT N OF 29N E OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH INLAND OVER N
MOROCCO. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA
FRI EVENING AND FROM 32N69W TO E CUBA SAT EVENING THEN WEAKEN
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN INTO MON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 30N WILL DECREASE
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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