[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W...THEN EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 5N30W TO 4N40W TO N
BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
LIBERIA FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 6W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 20N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
81W-85W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF FRONT S OF
27N. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF W OF
FRONT. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO W OF FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND IN 24 HOURS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA...
PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 74W-80W...AND FROM
8N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N E OF 63W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS... FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER W
CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO
THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 79W DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N73W. FURTHER E...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W TO 26N50W TO 20N60W TO N OF HISPANIOLA
AT 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A 1024 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MOROCCO NEAR 34N6W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N20W TO 24N40W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COASTS
OF NE VENEZUELA...GUYANA AND SURINAME. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 24N
BETWEEN 35W-65W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N30W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 16W-29W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION...
AND GALE FORCE WINDS N OF N OF 29N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net