[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W
ALONG 4N21W 5N30W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. NUMEROUS/
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 34W-37W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
30W-36W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 13N50W TO 4N48W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO/E BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE
NW GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 93W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MON FROM TAMPA TO E BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUE AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF WED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SW HAITI NEAR 18N73W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. NE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 80W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WED. THE TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED AND THU AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 32N53W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND SUPPORTING A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W ALONG 27N58W TO 23N65W. A
SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WITHIN
250 NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LEAVING THIS FRONT WITH LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE ABOVE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N47W ALONG 25N49W THROUGH A
1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N51W CONTINUING ALONG 18N52W TO 14N56W. THIS
LOW/TROUGH HAS LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N21W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS
MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM 32N74W TO THE N BAHAMAS TUE AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AND WED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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