[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 04N34W TO 11N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN
34W AND 37W AND WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 11N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS EVENING WITH THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
25N89W AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST
WESTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NW GULF WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 60 KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A
1027 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO
A 1023 MB HIGH OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE
TO E 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND E TO
SE 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SE ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 85W WITH THE AXIS FROM
22.5N79W TO 17N85W. THE TROUGH WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED W
OF ABOUT 70W WITH THE AXIS ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM 32N72W TO
22.5N79W. A STRONG JET LIES NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND CONTINUES THROUGH 27N65W TO BEYOND 32N55W WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT
RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MOVING
DOWNSTREAM A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N49W AND MOVING NNE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SW TO NEAR
12N58W. SURFACE REFLECTION IS MARKED BY A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
20N52W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW TO 18N57W IN 48 HOURS. TROUGHS
EXTEND FIVE TO SIX DEGREES BOTH N AND S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED UP TO 10 DEGREES OF THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RIDGE ALOFT HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED ALONG
34W FROM 10N TO 28N. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED
ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST N OF 18N AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO ABOUT
22W. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N31W AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ENE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB




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