[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA BUT IT DOES NOT REACH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 4N30W AND 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N34W
5N38W 7N42W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
2N TO 7N BETWEEN 7W AND 24W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W AWAY
FROM THE SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WEST OF 70W...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ENOUGH OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXISTS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 28N78W...CROSSING
FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 24N85W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N92W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 22N92W TO 21N95W AND 18N94W
IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...
AND TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 23N99W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...TO 19N97W AND
16N97W IN MEXICO...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE WARNING STILL EXISTS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AS THE INITIAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE...WITH WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET AT THE 24 HOUR TIME
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF 79W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 72W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 90W...CROSSING EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA
AND THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 17N...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND COLOMBIA.

BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W
IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF
80W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N
TO 6N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W...MORE OR LESS...FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE 23N50W AND 26N47W. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N55W AND 10N57W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 19N45W 15N48W 10N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 45W...REMAINING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...AND FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE IS ALONG 30N...FROM 10W...THROUGH
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34W...TO 30N57W...
TO 29N69W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 19N45W 10N50W SURFACE TROUGH...AND
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 46W...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST
OF 48W WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET
FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 65W...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N
BETWEEN 46W AND 71W. THESE ARE THE INITIAL CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 28N78W...CROSSING
FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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