[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO 05N30W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-07N BETWEEN 15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS MORNING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW GULF REGION
AND NORTH-CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING S-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NW OF A LINE FROM 25N98W TO 30N87W AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. CURRENTLY...A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS COAST MOVING E-NE. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22N88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 26N BETWEEN
84W-90W IN THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N79W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
AREA FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 81W-85W. FARTHER NORTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 81W-85W. OTHERWISE...
EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN STRONG DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX BY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING
IMPACTS THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 25N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA AS THE MOISTURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 29N ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 35N32W TO 13N60W THAT
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 32N27W TO 26N30W TO
22N32W THAT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE SW TO 11N55W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120
NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ALSO FOCUSED ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR
LINE AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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