[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE FAR E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N20W 7N40W 8N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W.
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
12W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 15W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENTS SW TO N MEXICO NEAR
24N98W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO S OF
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 24N92W 21N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 92W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE THE FRONT AND
TROUGH DISSIPATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N64W TO 14N77W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE SHEARLINE.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 80W-85W. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE SHEARLINE...AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM
28N76W 22N76W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 73W-80W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
17N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N
OF 19N BETWEEN 28W-36W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AT 32N15W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 37N47W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO
NEAR 35N38W AND DEEPEN TO 994 MB IN 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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