[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO COAST OF LIBERIA
AT 7N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 4N26W 7N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ ALONG 14N48W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
44W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH NEAR ZONAL DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
24N94W TO NEAR TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
SE GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
84W-88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF EARLY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY DRY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF S
AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES BESIDES A FEW
AREAS OF SHOWERS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND ARE CONVERGING AGAINST THE COAST OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS BOTH COUNTRIES AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST
OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. LIGHTER WINDS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF 15-20 KT S OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA CAUSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-73W. LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. TO THE EAST...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF
DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO IT SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N57W TO 19N63W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN
48W-59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE BANKING AGAINST THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 45W FEEDING INTO A LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE
ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1036 MB HIGH E OF THE
AZORES WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE E
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NW AFRICA TO THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 24W-36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS/WALTON






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