[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 35N47W TO
24N39W AND SUPPORTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ANALYZED AS
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 30N43W. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NE FROM
THE LOW TO 35N41W AND S-SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N42W TO 18N47W. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE
LOW CENTER OCCURRING FROM 32N-38N BETWEEN 36W-45W LOCATED MOSTLY
IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
33W-40W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH CURRENTLY
ALONG 37N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
08N13W TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 05N21W TO 08N35W TO 07N40W TO 10N50W TO
08N60W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE IS
ANALYZED FROM 07N37W TO 11N32W WITH MOSTLY WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 04N-14N
BETWEEN 11W-33W. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N52W TO
A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N50W TO 14N46W. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
WINDSAT PASS AROUND 02/0946 UTC SHOWED THE CYCLONIC AXIS OF THE
WIND FIELD. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN
44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE GULF IS UNDER WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND THAT A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS
IN CONTROL. AT THE SURFACE...STABILITY REMAINS THE OVERALL THEME
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST
NEAR 21N99W WHERE A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED. THE RIDGING
OVERALL IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W. MOSTLY EAST WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL E OF 90W WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
OBSERVED...AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
PREVAIL W OF 90W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY AREA OF
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 91W-94W. THIS
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 50W-90W THAT
PROVIDES INFLUENCE TO THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. WHILE MOST OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIRLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 17N66W TO 24N66W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 63W-70W. ELSEWHERE...NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE PUSHING AREAS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF
81W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 13N78W TO 11N84W. FINALLY...AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CARIBBEAN AND COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 57W-65W...INCLUDING
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AS WELL AS NE VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N62W TO 25N76W. THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM WESTERN PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N67W TO 24N66W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND MORE SO MAXIMIZED
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN
54W-70W. FARTHER EAST...THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CONTINUING TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 33W-46W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 38N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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