[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 25N40W AND 23N38W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC
CENTER/TROUGH...TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 27N40W 32N47W
AND 50W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31N42W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 25N43W AND 21N45W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 37W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEA HEIGHTS
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 FEET IN THAT SAME AREA. 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
28N42W TO 20N35W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 43W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING IF IT IS
NECESSARY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W
TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 6N23W TO 10N32W
8N41W...TOWARD A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 6N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N TO THE EAST
OF 26W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 44W AND 49W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 26N73W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO 24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 24N90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO 29N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO 25N93W...TO 16N97W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 22N TO 25N
TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 13N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
EAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER THAT IS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W
AND 78W...BEYOND 6N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 90W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 85W FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N64W
TO 28N68W TO 26N73W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 31N48W. A SHEAR LINE
IS ALONG 26N54W 25N60W 25N67W 21N75W NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N68W 19N67W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 30N
BETWEEN 56W AND 76W...INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA AND
PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND IN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N9W ALONG THE MOROCCO
COAST...TO 18N19W AND 11N22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 31N TO 34W BETWEEN MOROCCO AND 12W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N22W AND 10N18W
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS...FROM A 31N47W 25N60W 21N76W SHEAR LINE TO 30N...
BETWEEN 47W AND 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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