[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK AT 31/0900 UTC IS NEAR 30.1N 50.9W
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29.5N TO 31.5N
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IM THE BAHAMAS BEYOND
32N57N TO THE WEST OF 56W...EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE THAT IS
RELATED TO HURRICANE KIRK TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 31/0900 UTC IS NEAR
15.2N 47.8W. LESLIE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 14 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE
READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN
46W AND 52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INCLUDED IN THE 31/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INDISTINCT...TO THE EAST OF T.S. LESLIE...
BEING DISRUPTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11 BETWEEN 17W AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM ISAAC COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN THE MEXICO BORDER
WITH THE GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE WESTERN CUBA-TO-NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD...AND NOW IT IS
AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS.
A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA ALONG 75W BEYOND CUBA ALONG 80W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR FROM
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W...IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF EASTERN HONDURAS...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS OF
COSTA RICA...NEAR 80W FOR PANAMA...IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO PANAMA TO THE EAST
OF 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA-TO-80W CUBA LINE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM GUADELOUPE AT 16N
SOUTHWARD TO 9N IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE
LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA-TO-JAMAICA-TO-NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA LINE
THAT IS RELATED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 21N30W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 15N29W AND 6N31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 27W
AND 43W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
7N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W...JUST TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS NEAR 32N36W TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 46W...TO THE EAST OF HURRICANE KIRK. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE WEST OF 57W...TO THE WEST OF HURRICANE KIRK. A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE KIRK...AND ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net