[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR
32.7N 92.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF MONROE LOUISIANA...OR
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSE OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. ISAAC IS MOVING
NNW AT 8 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE
READ THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4
/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LIFE THREATENING HAZARDS FROM
STORM SURGE...INLAND FLOODING...AND TORNADOES STILL EXIST. ALL
RESIDENTS IN LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...AND SURROUNDING STATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
FOR UPDATES ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 MI OF THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 MI OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE KIRK AT 30/2100 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 50.3W. KIRK
IS MOVING NNW AT 11 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY... MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
49W-52W.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 30/2100 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N
45.3W. LESLIE IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE
COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 19N16W CONTINUING SW TO 10N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
10W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. ISAAC IS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER N LOUISIANA HOWEVER
RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MOVING NW. THE W
GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN CONTRAST HAVE FAIR WEATHER.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEN EXPECT ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH SE-S RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 81W-92W. A MONSOON TROUGH IS
FURTHER S OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 74W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N E
OF 62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE KIRK...AND T.S. LESLIE ARE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1020 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N32W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
26N-34N BETWEEN 28W-36W. A STRONG OUTBREAK OF SAHARAN DUST IS
NOTED ON GOES-R IMAGERY AND METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT FROM 10N-28N
E OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net