[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 27/1800 UTC IS NEAR 26.1N
85.9W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 83W-89W. A LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ENTRAINING FROM THE SOUTH OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 79W-82W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
W ATLANTIC. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS OCCURRING OVER E FLORIDA.
FURTHER SOUTH... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ENTRAINING FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 80W-81W. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF W CUBA. ALL RESIDENTS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD STAY IN TUNE
TO BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR UPDATES ABOUT T.S. ISAAC.

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N41W
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND A THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST
SURROUNDING THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 36W-41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
11N20W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 21N17W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 18W-26W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS SW OF THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N41W. IT
EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 9N51W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N51W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 6N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. ISAAC IS CENTERED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NW TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 12 KT. SEE ABOVE. TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUMEROUS LOCATIONS.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED SKIES EXTEND OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
E OF 91W AND N OF 22N. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 94W-97W. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF AND S TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-29N W OF 77W. A 1025 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W. ANOTHER
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N20W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N63W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 10N45W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW
CENTERED AT 17N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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