[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 26/1800 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N
81.5W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA. ISAAC IS
MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO NW CUBA FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-82W. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FURTHER N FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-83W...AND FURTHER S FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 77W-80W.

A 1010 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR
17N35W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
24N31W TO THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
SCALE MONSOON GYRE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A LARGE SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND A THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST
SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 32W-40W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE ERN
TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 20N16W CONTINUING
WSW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 16N22W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE
1010 MB LOW AT 17N35W TO 11N40W TO 8N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N46W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 9N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 16W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. ISAAC IS CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE.
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED SKIES AND SHOWERS EXTEND OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 89W AND S OF 29N TO INCLUDE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-24 N BETWEEN 90W-92W.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SOUTHERN BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 77W-80W. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF CUBA. INTERESTS OVER W CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE STORM
CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE ONLY
AREA STILL UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.
ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NORTHERN BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
MUCH OF THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE STORM CONTINUES OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N50W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 57W-62W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N45W
PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT 17N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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