[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240618 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

AMENDED IN ORDER TO UPDATE INFORMATION ABOUT
T.S. ISAAC...AND THE SECTION ABOUT THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 24/0600 UTC IS NEAR
16.9N 69.4W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION
IS ABOUT 100 NM/185 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 196 NM/360 KM TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 280 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150 TO 300 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BANDS OF RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N BETWEEN 64W
AND 70W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION ALSO IS REACHING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM EAST TO WEST. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS AWAY FROM THE ISAAC CIRCULATION
IS MOVING ACROSS COLOMBIA...SHEARING SOME OF THE CLOUD TOPS
IN PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W AT 24/0000 UTC...HAS WEAKENED
AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N68W 24N73W 28N72W...
TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND IN THE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL STORM.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR
16.3N 43.7W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
17N TO 26N BETWEEN 41W AND 51W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N18W 16N20W...TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N21W IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ONLY TROPICAL WAVE IS LISTED NOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STARTS WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 14N21W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 11N26W AND 14N34W.
THE REST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY T.D. JOYCE.
THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N49W 10N53W 10N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN LAND AND 17W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 32W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO
THE WEST OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA
INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH AT THIS MOMENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W AT 23/2115 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION
HAS WEAKENED/BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 TO 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N78W 26N80W AND 24N84W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N86W...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST.

FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 32N72W
29N75W...OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA INTO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS
IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND 12N86W IN
NICARAGUA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC. A SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS IS AT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 33N54W
TO 28N55W 23N53W...TO A 21N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 35N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N20W AND 17N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N24W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 35N25W TO 31N31W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND THE 1022 MB HIGH CENTER FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 17W
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
34N39W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N47W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 33N56W 31N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA TO 32N69W TO 30N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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