[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 23/1200 UTC IS NEAR
15.4N 64.8W...MOVING WESTWARD 11 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
225 NM/360 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...OR ABOUT 315
MI...505 KM ESE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE  PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W
AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W INCLUDING IN
TRINIDAD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN OUTER RAIN
AREAS ARE REACHING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR
14.5N 40.6W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 25N BETWEEN
35W AND 45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 9N TO 20N...JUST EMERGING
OFF AFRICA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS
AS IT WAS MOVING ACROSS AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 27W.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM LAND TO 20N BETWEEN 93W
AND 95W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN MEXICO AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N18W 9N26W. THE REST OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ ARE INDISTINCT AT THIS MOMENT
BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN BROKEN UP BY TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N83W IN FLORIDA
TO 28N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N96W
TO 23N87W TO 28N81W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 96W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W.

FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N65W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N75W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N76W ALONG THE COAST OF
CUBA...TO 13N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
32N73W 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND COVERING EL SALVADOR
COMPLETELY...IN AN AREA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
IN DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW WITH A COL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 77W...AND IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
79W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W
27N80W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO
28N20W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 28N20W TO 25N28W AND 30N46W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N46W TO A 20N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.
A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
20N45W 16N43W TO 10N44W...STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF T.D. TEN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 37N20W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N40W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
35N57W...THROUGH 30N72W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT T.D. TEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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