[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR
15.5N 63.5W...MOVING WESTWARD 17 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
230 NM/425 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE  PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO
16N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W
AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W INCLUDING IN
TRINIDAD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 63W AND 68W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 23/0300 UTC IS NEAR
13.8N 39.5W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 15N39.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 10N TO 19N...JUST EMERGING
OFF AFRICA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS
AS IT WAS MOVING ACROSS AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 25W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 71W/72W
AT 22/1800 UTC HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS
AT 23/0000 UTC. WE JUST ARE NOT ABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE OF
IT ANYMORE.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ ARE INDISTINCT AT THIS MOMENT.
THEY HAVE BEEN BROKEN UP BY THE T.S. ISAAC AND T.D. TEN.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N91W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N83W IN FLORIDA
TO 28N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 28N92W AND
25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 95W/96W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 31N71W...ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 28N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W.

FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N65W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N75W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N76W ALONG THE COAST OF
CUBA...TO 13N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 32N72W 22N78W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 17N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
T.S. ISAAC. A SECOND AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 85W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N73W 29N75W 26N80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO
29N22W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 29N22W TO 28N32W AND 28N46W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N46W TO 20N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
20N43W TO 14N42W...STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF T.D. TEN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 37N16W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N23W...TO 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 36N48W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 28N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT T.D. TEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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