[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 22/1800 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N
60.2W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 75
NM/120 KM TO THE ENE OF DOMINICA...OR ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE
OF GUADELOUPE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 56W-64W. A NORTHERN FEEDER BAND HAS
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
60W-64W. A SOUTHERN FEEDER BAND HAS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 53W-62W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 22/1500 UTC IS NEAR
12.4N 36.3W...MOVING WNW AT 14 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 860
NM/1385 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 33W-39W...
AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N69W TO 7N70W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A SW GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N93W TO 13N94W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 8N22W TO 12N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 11W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A 1011
MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO N OF TAMPICO AT 23N98W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 21N100W.
THIS SYSTEM IS STATIONARY AND HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 94W-98W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 27N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. 5-10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THIS TROUGH. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE S OF THIS TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N
SUPPORTING BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH BOTH
SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S.ISAAC IS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER N COLOMBIA
AT 9N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-86W.
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. FURTHER N...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 83W-89W. EXPECT
T.S. ISAAC TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 29N70W.
AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS FROM 10N-34N E OF 33W...AND FROM 10N-27N
BETWEEN 33W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 69W-74W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N50W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
N OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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