[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 202119
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
520 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

UPDATED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH

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