[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 20/1500 UTC IS NEAR 38.3N
22.3W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 225 MILES/410 KM TO THE E OF
THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 13 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 40N-43N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N43W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 16N45W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 22 KT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 44W -48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN
STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN
AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N23W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 13N26W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 26W-30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N52W TO 10N52W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO
10N83W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 77W-83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W TO
9N25W TO 13N30W TO 13N40W TO 14N46W TO 9N54W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N54W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 39W-41W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 30N86W TO 28N90W TO 25N95W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
AT 22N98W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 10 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF THE
TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE TROUGH. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
GULF. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE N GULF STATES IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A 1010 MB LOW TO FORM OFF THE
COAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1012 MB
LOW IS ALSO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. A 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF
65W AND S OF 13N. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W
AT 15 KT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N63W. A
1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N28W. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS FROM 15N-30N E OF 55W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 23N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
74W-79W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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