[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 17/1500 UTC IS NEAR 34.5N 46.3W. GORDON
IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN 45W-48W.
34N TO 36N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
20N95W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N94W TO THE LOW CENTER TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 15N95W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WNW.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 93W-98W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE IT REACHES LAND. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
EXTENDING FROM 16N19W TO 8N21W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 9N38W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N62W TO 9N63W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT
20N16W TO 18N18W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 11N25W TO
9N30W TO 8N40W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N45W TO NE
VENEZUELA AT 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 7N-12N BETWEEN 26W-30W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE EMBEDDED LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 83W-88W MOVING SE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO PANAMA AND N COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-85W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND MOVING W AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS FROM 15N-30N E OF 60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S GEORGIA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 74W-79W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N65W
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
66W-70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA








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