[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 16/1200 UTC IS NEAR 33.3N
53.8W...OR ABOUT 560 NM E OF BERMUDA...AND 1330 NM W OF THE
AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING NE AT 14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
33N-36N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ANALYSIS INDICATING THE WAVES PRESENCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
LARGE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N55W TO 8N47W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE
WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN TILTED.
THIS TILT CAN BE SEEN IN THE MOISTURE FIELD IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER. DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND
IS UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE...WHICH IS HELPING LEAD TO THE TILT.
DUE TO THE DRY AIR...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN
DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS AS OF 1200 UTC. THE WAVE...WHICH BROKE
SEVERAL DAYS AGO WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING TO THE N...NOW T.S.
GORDON...LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY DURING THE BREAK. IT APPEARS
THAT ANYTHING THAT WAS LEFT OF THE WAVE THAT HAD BEEN ANALYZED
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS NOW DISSIPATED.

TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN...IS MOVING W AT 10 KT
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N92W TO 18N92W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE RANGING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
88W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 16N16W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N40W TO 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 12W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 22W-27W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. THE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
POPPED OVER THE NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE CONUS. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW GULF NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW
CORNER EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A SHARP
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 16N81W TO
12N76W. DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC AS WELL
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N64W IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 71W-78W...AND
FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 64W-68W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N48W SUPPORTING A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N45W. NW OF THE HIGH CENTER IS TROPICAL STORM GORDON.
GORDON IS OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC AS
WELL PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC...BUT IS NOT CAUSING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF DUST EXTENDS FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND BOTH TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLC. THE
DRY AIR MASS IS LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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