[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTENSIFIED ENOUGH FROM 16/0300 UTC
TO 16/0900 UTC AND IT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GORDON
AT 16/0900 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT
16/0900 UTC IS NEAR 32.2N 54.8W. GORDON IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD 12 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
25N TO 37N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W TO THE SOUTH OF
21N. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN
19W AND 31W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...
TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 91W...FROM 23N
INTO WESTERN GUATEMALA. THIS WAVE IS REMNANT OF T.D. SEVEN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUATEMALA TO THE NORTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
AND BELIZE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 97W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W TO 11N24W 10N32W 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W
TO 6N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W...TO A 23N97W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...BEYOND 20N97W AT THE MEXICO COAST.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TOWARD 26N90W AND THEN BEYOND 30N83W IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE
EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N64W...AND THEN FROM PUERTO
RICO TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 66W TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND 77W NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NEAR 17N77W AROUND 15/2115 UTC...WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING AND LOSING
ITS IDENTITY NEAR 15N78W ABOUT 16/0515 UTC. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N82W
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS ALONG
20N64W 14N66W...BEYOND 8N68W IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS FROM 7N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO 11N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN
LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 82W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO
26N22W TO 18N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N20W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N45W...TO 26N60W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...NFDHSFAT1...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GORDON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN
51W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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