[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160642 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

CORRECTION FOR THE TIME FOR T.D. EIGHT TO 16/0300 UTC...
THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...AND OTHER FEATURES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 16/0300 UTC IS NEAR
31.3N 55.5W. T.D. EIGHT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N
TO 36N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N50W 15N47W 10N43W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
20N63W...AND THEN FROM PUERTO RICO TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W...FROM 23N JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN HONDURAS. THIS WAVE IS
REMNANT OF T.D. SEVEN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W TO 11N25W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N43W TO
7N49W...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SURINAME NEAR 4N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W
AND 44W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N91W...TO A 23N95W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...BEYOND 20N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TOWARD 26N90W AND THEN BEYOND 30N83W IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE
EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TOWARD THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W...AND THEN FROM PUERTO
RICO TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NEAR 17N77W AROUND 15/2115 UTC...WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING AND LOSING
ITS IDENTITY NEAR 15N78W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS ALONG
20N62W 14N65W...BEYOND 8N67W IN WEST CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE
EAST OF 67W...MOVING WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...NORTHWESTWARD
SPANNING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHWESTERN
COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO
26N23W TO 18N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 37N13W TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N23W...TO 28N32W 26N53W...TO A 1018 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TOWARD THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...AND EXCEPT AS NOTED IN
WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
60 NM OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM EIGHT TO HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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