[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 141131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.  ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
1050 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE... 30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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