[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
AFRICA FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N38W 22N39W 17N39W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 22N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N68W 16N69W...
TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 71W AND 72.5W SPANNING LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
15.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 66W AND
68W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 72W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N20W 10N26W 10N33W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N33W 11N45W 10N52W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH REACHES 30N87W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N99W ON TOP OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN
95W AND 98W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
WEST OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH OF 29N91W 25N97W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N66W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO AN EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N87W...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N68W 16N69W...TO THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE
REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 71W AND 72.5W
SPANNING LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 69W
AND 71W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 16N
TO 17.5N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF
72W.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...ALONG 20N77W 14N78W TO 9N80W AT THE
COAST OF PANAMA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W...TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
WINDS AND SEAS THAT ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE/REMNANTS OF
T.D. SEVEN...AND THE 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N59W TO
A 29N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N60W...TO 20N62W
AND 19N64W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 36N12W...TO 33N29W...TO A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N38W...TO 33N50W 29N66W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO AN EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 38W/39W
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ALONG IT NEAR 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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