[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 57.5W AT
11/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 130 NM ENE OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 210 NM E
OF MARTINIQUE MOVING W AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N24W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
18N25W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N25W MOVING WNW AT 15
KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A CUT OFF AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 26W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W MOVING
W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N
BETWEEN 91W-97W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 21N17W TO 18N21W THEN RESUMES W OF THE LOW/TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 14N28W ALONG 10N35W TO 8N42W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 7N48W TO 7N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N59W TO JUST INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND
STRETCHING THROUGH NW GEORGIA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
IN THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND
ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF FORT MYERS TO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 23N BETWEEN
85W-87W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER MEXICO
LATE SUN OR MON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
E GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE INS TO THE E EXTENDING
ACROSS E CUBA TO E PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE UPPER FEATURES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-87W AND BETWEEN
13N-18N W OF 81W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 79W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. T.D. SEVEN IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N72W EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER BERMUDA AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER CUBA
TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND S OF 28N W OF 80W TO OVER S
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO 24N73W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 63W-70W. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR
27N50W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N40W OVER BERMUDA THEN WSW ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT NE THROUGH TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NW.
T.D. SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net