[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 52.8W AT
11/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 550
MI...890 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MOVING W AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 50W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
21N20W TO 13N22W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N21W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED
IN A AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N-21N BETWEEN 22W-28W. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED
A REMARKABLE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE CLOUD
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT REMAINS
SUPPRESSED AS INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATES NO DEEP COLD CLOUD
TOPS IN THE CONVECTION AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 24N87W TO 16N88W MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT.
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS S OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IN THE
ERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N22W TO 9N35W...WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 7N41W TO 8N46W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS TO THE NW GULF BASIN. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING INLAND CONVECTION THAT IS ENTERING
THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF...DEPICTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N
OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-92W. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE ACTIVITY OVER THE N-CENTRAL
AND NE GULF WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED OVER WRN CUBA MOVING N INTO THE ERN
GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E
OF 88W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO COMBINED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MEXICO IS STILL
PRODUCING RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON LAST
SATELLITE VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA AND INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 76W-84W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NRN COLOMBIA
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MENTIONED AREA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST DRY AIR IS
FOUND E OF 76W ALOFT AND THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN WRN CUBA. THE BROAD
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN ATLC S OF 30N W OF 72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH JUST EAST OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO PROVIDING
FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS
FROM 26N67W TO 22N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N50W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 56W-61W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC AND REMAINS ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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