[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 97.2W AT
10/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 70 NM NNW OF OAXACA MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 NM
SSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 90W-103W. MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION HOWEVER IS SW OF A LINE FROM 23N98W TO 19N92W AND
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 45.5W AT
10/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 910 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W
AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-50W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N17W TO 23N15W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA
AND EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH A 1004 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 15N17W. GLOBAL MODEL
DATA INDICATES THAT IF THE LOW HOLDS TOGETHER WITH SUSTAINED
DEEP CONVECTION...IT HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N69W TO 27N63W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS FLORENCE AND
LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N82W TO 22N79W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 73W-85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 74W-81W...
AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N80W WHICH IS PROVIDING MAXIMUM
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N18W TO
12N26W TO 14N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS
FROM 11N48W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-11N BETWEEN 19W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN LOCATED NORTH OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERNESTO AS IT TRACKS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N98W. AT THE SURFACE...
WITH ERNESTO WEAKENING INLAND...MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N WHICH IS ANCHORED
BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RESULT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-91W...AND OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 82W-84W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG 28N
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N80W
AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN W OF 70W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 74W-83W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE JAMAICA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND EASTERN CUBA. A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST DRY AIR IS
FOUND E OF 70W ALOFT AND THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
17N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N80W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO 29N77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-80W. A TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THIS AREA IS ALSO PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 58W-70W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALL
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 30N62W TO 27N78W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 27N INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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