[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 09/1800 UTC IS NEAR
18.2N 94.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 5 NM TO THE NORTH OF
COATZACOALCOS IN MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD 4 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 94W AND 97W AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO AND
OFF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
95W AND 98W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
14N IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N43.5W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N59W 23N61W 20N62W.
THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF FLORENCE. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/78W FROM 22N TO 12N.
THE WAVE STARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF CUBA...
IT CROSSES JAMAICA...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD...CROSSING
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N/25N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAN TO JUST THE WAVE BY ITSELF.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 11N19W AND 15N37W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 41W/42W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
26W AND 31W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE
EAST OF 100W. THE FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO REACHING 27N93W...AND THEN IT CURVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
90W. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TOWARD THE BASE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-INTO-
THE CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES THE FLORIDA COAST THAT IS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
ERNESTO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND 93W IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS INLAND IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 09/1200 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS 2.59 INCHES.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 14N84W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO 16N86W IN NORTHERN
COASTAL HONDURAS...TO 20N89W IN THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO THE
19N79W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 11N76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/78W FROM 22N TO 12N.
THE WAVE STARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF CUBA...
IT CROSSES JAMAICA...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD...CROSSING CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N/25N BETWEEN 72W
AND 77W...POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAN TO JUST THE WAVE BY ITSELF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
OFF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND
69W...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
75W AND 77W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W...TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...TO 11N86W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF COSTA
RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET BETWEEN
67W AND 77W INCLUDING 30 KT WINDS ALONG 17N OFF THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO THE
19N79W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 11N76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/78W FROM 22N TO 12N.
THE WAVE STARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF CUBA...
IT CROSSES JAMAICA...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD...CROSSING CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N/25N BETWEEN 72W
AND 77W...POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAN TO JUST THE WAVE BY ITSELF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
OFF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND
69W...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
75W AND 77W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 28N54W 23N57W AND 20N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 35N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT OF FLORENCE
IS ALSO NEAR THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N75W TO 31N78W. THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...WHOSE BASE REACHES THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE 29N80W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO
26N28W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N24W TO 30N30W AND 31N37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N48W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 32N48W
HIGH CENTER TO 32N62W 28N72W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
27N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 18N25W BEYOND 18N17W.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N46W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N49W 24N33W
BEYOND 23N16W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO 20N62W 26N59W TROPICAL WAVE.
EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS DURING
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD RELATED TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 14N41W AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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